76% of Beauty Marketers Expect Holiday Revenue to Rise in 2026

Seventy-six percent of brand and retailer professionals expect their 2026 holiday revenue to increase by 1% to 31% or more over 2025, according to a new Glossy+ Research survey of 90 industry professionals.

The report, "The 2026 guide to holiday marketing strategies," draws on the survey plus interviews with executives at A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual. It marks a shift in mood. Last year's holiday report found brands and retailers expressing conservative expectations for 2025 holiday revenue.

The downside risk looks contained. Zero respondents said they expect their 2026 holiday revenue to fall by more than 11% versus last year.

What is tempering the optimism?

Inflation weighs on the executives' minds, even as the survey numbers point up.

"It is getting brutal out there," said Ari Bloom, founder and CEO of brand incubator A-Frame Brands. "Costs are getting so high, and the economy is soft right now, and probably will get softer as we get into the fall. The cost issue is going to be really hard for a lot of smaller companies to absorb with heavy discounting."

Bloom also flagged the political calendar. "When you're in an election year, you've got a different dynamic because there's a lot of discussion around inflation," he said. "People will have a sentiment of whether the environment is inflationary, whether things are too expensive or there's an affordability crisis."

Laura Brodie, chief growth officer at supplement company Ritual, shares the concern about consumer confidence but not the gloom. "Even with the state of the economy and consumer sentiment sitting at a pretty low point in history, I'm bullish," Brodie said. "Spending is resilient. It's less about what happens in holiday spending growth year over year, which will probably be modest. Where the spend actually gets allocated will be interesting to see."

Will discounts get deeper?

No. Eighty-one percent of respondents expect their 2026 holiday discounts to match their 2025 discounts, and the majority have no plans to cut deeper. Instead, brands are reaching for other promotional levers:

• Product bundling
• Gifts with purchase
• Perks and exclusivity for existing customers
• Cross-brand partnerships

Bloom said higher transportation and fuel costs add pressure, which makes bundling the smarter play. "This year will be more sensitive than last year because the economic situation is more difficult and prices are higher," he said. "We've been talking a lot about bundling versus discounting because holiday is a time when people will buy multiples. They might buy the same gift for three different people, and they may buy it for themselves to try on top of it."

Gift with purchase can also convert gift-buyers into repeat customers, he said. "We recommend products, even if it's trial sizing, that are able to be thrown in a bag," Bloom said. "It is a really good way to get people who are buying a gift to keep something for themselves as part of the transaction. There are ways for brands to think about getting more value out to the customer."

How are brands avoiding acquisition costs?

Holiday customer acquisition is expensive. Ritual's answer is rewarding the audience it already owns. "Offering exclusivity to existing customers and to pull people back with something that feels unique, a compelling gift with purchase or seasonal drop. … The cost of acquisition is high during the holidays, so being able to tap an existing audience can be cost-effective," Brodie said.

Ritual has also swapped gifts with purchase with like-minded wellness brands. "Brands that are in similar sizes can come together and create something that feels compelling that can benefit both brands," Brodie said. "We've partnered with like-minded brands like [skincare brand] Osea and swapped gift with purchases."

Brodie expects consumers to spend more on experiences this season. "We're seeing a big cultural shift towards nostalgia, being intentional and spending time with family," she said. "I anticipate people will gravitate towards gifts as experiences or things that feel personal rather than mass-purchased. That includes brands that have a distinct point of view, or are mission-driven or founder-led. Especially in health and wellness, brands that really speak to a consumer will have a strong opportunity to win."

What comes after the discounts?

Susan Grossman, evp of consumer acquisition and engagement services at Mastercard, said she expects brands to invest in rewards, exclusive access and experiences that extend beyond the holidays this year. "The more sustainable approach is to think about value more broadly. That could be a personalized offer, exclusive access, relevant recommendations, a seamless experience, or an incentive timed to the right moment," Grossman said.

"But to do that, you need better signals and smart personalization," she added. "When brands understand intent, they can be more precise with when, where, and how they use incentives. Instead of blanket discounting, they can create value for the consumers who need an extra nudge while continuing to build long-term loyalty with those who already have an affinity for the brand."

The message for 2026 is consistent across the survey and the executives: expect revenue growth, skip the deeper markdowns, and buy loyalty with precision rather than percentage signs.